Well I was reading the Wall Street Journal's section on the Georgian conflict and I got this shot in the arm that motivated me to blog again. So as I'm sure people know there is a conflict in Georgia that involves Russia. It's being told in this manner: Russia and its seperatists in South Ossetia cause a fuss again about seperating/annexing. Georgia attacks. Russia retaliates in a much bigger magnitude than expected, taking over the area. Georgia retreats saying it wants peace. Now they're in a big hullabaloo and Georgia wants help. Russia is testing how far they can go and are bringing up old grudges about genocide from Georgia.
So what are the implications of this? Is this the start of a new cold war? Georgia is a staunch U.S. ally and its president Sakashvili has brought along Western ideals. He is spinning it as a anti-democratic move and we should all be alarmed.
My thoughts:
Did this come at this time for a reason? The Olympics has brought the worlds attention to international relations. Georgia should know that it can't hope to hold a candle to the power of Russia, so it seems that they are leveraging the attack now to garner attention from the World.
What should the next president do about it and what are Barack's and John's stances on it? John McCain already strongly denounced Russia. He has had a few very anti-Putin quotes. Barack has been playing the fence a little bit but later put a little blame on Russia. Ok...Russia wants its old Soviet Union back and its ability to fight for it is only going to INCREASE in the future as it gets filthy rich off of oil and other commodities. I haven't done much research on it but why not? Give them a spot on the table. I really think that trying to intimidate Russia is not going to happen. As Russia gets richer they are less likely to listen to anyone.
On this issue I think I would rather have Obama who doesn't have any pre-disposed feelings towards Russia.
I just want to iterate I have not chosen a candidate and don't hope to until election time. Hopefully this blog will help me make a decision.
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2 comments:
Saw your comment at politico and had to drop by. Glad I did. I'm not sure I agree with you on leaning towards Obama. Putin is ex-KGB and eats democrats (small d)for breakfast in Russia and I seriously doubt that Obama has the political skill to finess such a thug.
I'm also not sure that an old warhorse like McCain can bluff a young and energetic Putin and if McCain isn't bluffing, with what do we back up the threat?
This can be a true connundrum for all concerned, a well seasoned thug, an empty suit and an old warhorse. Tough choices ahead.
Good blog by the way. Drop by Has Everyone Gone Nuts? some day.
GM Roper
The issue with Russia isn't about giving them a seat at the table - they already have that - it's about whether they "deserve" to have control over the smaller, ex Soviet nations in their region. The current Russian administration is of the opinion that they should be able to exert their authority over nations like Georgia even if their desires go against what the other nation's desire or is in their best interest.
McCain isn't anti-Russia as much as he's anti-Putin. I agree with him, Putin has completely destroyed any semblance of democracy and free press that may have existed in Russia. If there was any way other then violent revolution to oust Putin and his cronies from power and actually hold elections I'm sure McCain would be willing to work with a reasonable Moscow. That's not what you have.
You mention the massive prosperity that exists in Russia today due to oil revenues. There are a few things to note about that. It's all in the hands of the very few and very powerful, and in the near future those revenues are more likely to fall then to rise. Russia is enjoying a boom, but with even the recent drop in oil prices they'll have been hit by billions of dollars losses. The rhetoric that's been thrown around the West for the past few years is "energy independence" and a movement away from oil, gasoline and fossil fuels. Basically, what we're saying is that we want to live in a world where oil is crazy cheap because we don't really need it any more. That would destroy Russia.
Invading Georgia (and I think that it was premeditated on the part of Russia) allows them to disrupt the flow of oil along two pipelines through Georgia and ensure that a natural gas pipeline that could threaten Russia's arrangement with Western Europe either doesn't get built or is built under the auspices of a new, vehemently pro-Moscow government. Moscow has already shown that they are willing to shut off the pipelines and electricity flowing out of their nation when it serves political ends.
The major reason that Europe isn't condemning Russia is because they get much of their energy from Russia. The only nation that's taking a strong ant-Russia stand is France, and France is also the only nation in Europe that gets 75% of their power domestically from nuclear power plants. Basically, France can afford to piss off Russia but the rest of Europe can't.
Just my thoughts. Nice blog.
-Tom
Nowhere-fast.net
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